Building in the open

Linear and CTV reach do not add up. They were never supposed to.

A converged local cable and CTV buy comes back with two audience counts built two different ways, and adding them overstates reach. ReachPost is writing the rules for stating, bounding and reconciling those counts, in the open.

The problem

Two counts, built two ways, added as if they were one

Each side is internally correct. The trouble starts when the post-buy report puts them in the same column.

Local cable, linearCTV
What is countedHouseholds in a zone, estimatedHouseholds, sometimes devices, that received an impression
Built fromModeled zone-level aggregatesImpression logs
Keyed byThe zoneA household or device identifier
In the reportAdded together, so anyone reached on both screens is counted twice

Before any modeling assumption, deduplicated reach can only sit between the larger leg and the sum of the two. That interval is the one statement about reach nobody can argue with.

A Reach Post reports that interval first, then places its estimate inside it and says exactly how the estimate was made.

Approach

Audience accounting, in three verbs

Reach across linear and CTV is an accounting problem before it is a measurement problem, and accounting needs a shared rule before it needs better data.

State

Declare the unit, the source, the deduplication key and that key's known error behind every reported figure. Households, devices and persons never share a total.

Bound

Report the interval that holds before any modeling assumption, then place the point estimate inside it rather than in front of it.

Reconcile

When two parties count the same campaign differently, separate the part that is method from the part that is error before deciding which number is right.

What a Reach Post declares
  1. Unit
  2. Source
  3. Dedup key
  4. Key error
  5. Interval
  6. Estimate
  7. Assumption ledger

The post-buy number with its construction attached, in a form a buyer can read and a machine can check. The schema will be published openly.

First releases

An essay, a schema, a calculator

In that order. Each one is linked here the day it ships.

Writing

One household, counted four ways

One household, one game, two screens, and a post-buy report that counts it more than once while each side is internally correct. An essay on prashantchaudhary.com.

Planned

Reach Post schema

An open reporting standard for a converged reach number, with a machine-readable assumption ledger.

Planned

Reach interval calculator

A public calculator a linear buyer can read without knowing what a Fréchet bound is.

Code under Apache-2.0. Schemas and text under CC-BY-4.0.

Who it is for

Planners and buyers running converged local cable and CTV buys, and the measurement people who review their numbers.

ReachPost is not a currency, an audit function, a company or a measurement provider. It publishes the rules, the schema and the code, and leaves the counting to the people who already do it.